It will not be incorrect to suggest that midterm elections result were not at all surprising instead the policies executed by Republicans since their with various speculating surrounding created a strong ground for Democrats to take over the House.
However, it is true that the trend observed in 2018 midterm election was certainly a learning lesson for both the parties. With final Presidential elections due in 2020, given the learning from US midterm elections the political environment is to change to a next level.
A brief analysis of the US midterms elections suggest that though Democrats were able to secure victories in Rust Belt states setting base to victory to white house still Donald Trump’s Republican Party did not loose on critical states that will help in securing the presidency.
The hope for democrats was though raised by their critical win in the state of Wisconsin which earlier was a big downfall falling to Trump victory. This time Republican Gov. Scott Walker’s narrow loss in his bid for a third term left Democrats optimistic of gaining back the lost ground moving towards Michigan and Pennsylvania.
“To have Walker lose is a significant turning point that the right candidate in 2020 could win all of these states” across the industrial north, Democratic pollster Paul Maslin, who advised Democratic Sen. Tammy Baldwin’s campaign. “If they do, Trump’s map starts to get more difficult.”
Though optimism has swept across Democrats there are several reasons why they must put every step forth with cautions. The most apt of the trend that brings in the caution is despite their win Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania were offset by mixed results in Ohio and GOP dominance in electoral powerhouse Florida.
For instance in Ohio, Republicans got an upper hand in the governor’s race and a handful of other statewide offices. Ohio Democratic Rep. Tim Ryan, who won another term representing a district expressed it a “really bad election night” for the party. He further expressed that he said Democrats were able to win when they focused on “bread-and-butter economic issues,” the way he and Sen.
Ryan even during an interview stated “If you’re not connecting with the workers, then you’re not going to be able to do well,” Further criticizing Trump he said “Trump connected to the workers. If we don’t do that, if we’re continuing to be seen as elite and that people are ‘deplorables’ if they don’t vote for us, we’re going to have a big problem.”
Republicans, though, pointed to Trump’s 8-point victory in Ohio in 2016, and the four campaign visits he made to the state, including a southwest Ohio jaunt three weeks before the election. Trump remains very popular in the region, spanning from the politically swing-voting Hamilton County eastward along a string of Ohio River counties which gave him an upper hand by 30 percentage points.
There were also warning signs for Democrats in Florida, a perennial swing state that is increasingly delivering victories — however narrow — to the GOP. One bright note for Democrats in Florida was the passage of Amendment 4, which will restore voting rights to most felons when they complete their sentences and probation, adding 1.4 million possible voters to the rolls.
“There are some assumptions about states Democratic presidential candidates will visit that are being truly reconsidered,” Democratic strategist Anita Dunn said. “I’m talking about changing the map.”
It is clear though there is hope for Democrats the chances are bleak unless Democrats work on within and outer strategy to understand the changing political climate and bring forth an impact backed execution understanding the caution areas.